Ukraine’s acceptance of a U.S.-proposed ceasefire with Russia briefly pushed the euro to a five-month high, while equities experienced turbulence on Tuesday due to investor uncertainty over trade tariffs. The agreement, which includes an immediate 30-day ceasefire following discussions in Saudi Arabia, was seen as a positive development for financial markets. However, the absence of a response from Russia left traders cautious, contributing to market fluctuations.
Despite the initial optimism, global markets faced significant swings. While the ceasefire news helped U.S. stock indexes recover from session lows, concerns over trade policy continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Earlier in the day, President Donald Trump had directed the Commerce Secretary to impose an additional 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, doubling the total tariff to 50%. However, by late afternoon, reports suggested that the U.S. might be reconsidering its stance after Ontario’s Premier announced a suspension of planned countermeasures on electricity exports. The official also planned to travel to Washington for negotiations.
Uncertainty Over Trade Policy Fuels Market Jitters
Analysts observed that economic uncertainty was exacerbating market volatility. An investment strategist from Edward Jones highlighted that while economic growth typically slows in the first quarter, the unpredictability surrounding trade policies had added further strain.
On Monday, the S&P 500 experienced its sharpest single-day decline this year, following comments by Trump in a television interview where he refrained from dismissing the possibility of a recession linked to his trade policies. Investor concerns were further heightened by data showing a third consecutive monthly decline in U.S. small-business confidence in February, reversing much of the optimism seen after the 2016 election.
Looking ahead, market participants were closely watching upcoming U.S. inflation data, with the consumer price index report for February expected to provide further insights into the economic outlook. Uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and trade regulations continued to shape market sentiment, leaving investors wary of further fluctuations.